The sale of Manchester United may have reached its conclusion yesterday evening, according to several reports that surfaced after the Glazer family accepted Sheikh Jassim bin Hamad Al Thani's fifth and final offer.
According to a report from the Qatari publication Al-Watan, an announcement about Al Thani's winning bid would occur "soon." Sheikh Jassim's father had a portion of the publishing company Al-Watan, which would have given readers more hope that a solution was close at hand. However, it should be highlighted that Al-Watan's website doesn't have any such article.
However, this does not imply that there has not been smoke flowing from Qatar, as Al-Watan does say in his twitter feed that "Press reports" point to the bid's eventual success.
The fact that the publication's twitter account went as far as to pin that particular tweet may say a lot. The reports have also had the full support of Fahed Al Emadi, the editorial director of Al-Watan, who tweeted, "All the news received indicates the success of Sheikh Jassim bin Hamad bin Jassim's acquisition of Manchester United, and the announcement of the deal will be very soon."
According to the People's person Given the non-disclosure agreements governing the sales process, it's possible that Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, the former emir and Sheik Jassim's father, can't legally corroborate the reports. It is well known that the Raine Group, which is managing the sale on behalf of the Glazers, was dissatisfied with the previously made-public positions of both bids.
Mohammed Al-Kaabi, a Sport360 Arabiya reporter, seemed to have picked up on the story as quickly as anybody else. He tweeted a photo of the Qatari flag flying above Old Trafford with the comment "very soon," shortly after tweeting the following:
“When we said things would be settled before the 30th of March in favor of the new owners of United, things were heading in the right direction, and the Glazers had told the new investors twice to increase the offer and that was done. Sir Jim Ratcliffe movie. [sic]
“After that, the Glazer spoke with the president of a European club to talk to the new owners to raise the value of the offer for the third or even fourth time.. Now things are positive and heading towards the right track.”
The after-hours trading figures from yesterday seem to support the notion that confidence is high in Qatar.
After hours on Monday, shares of Manchester United were trading around $24, up 16.74% from the $20.13 closing price. It's interesting to note that those highs, which had been fairly stable up until Al-Kaabi's "very soon" tweet, were achieved shortly after.
According to BBC Economics Editor Faisal Islam, because the Qatari proposal guarantees a 100% takeover of Man United, share price volatility is a reliable sign of investor confidence in Sheikh Jassim's success.
“To explain – reason share price is a gauge of perceived likelihood of Qatar victory, is Jassim bid is for 100% of shares & will pay out on NY listed shares at takeover price,” Islam tweeted earlier.
“Ineos bid is believed to be focussed on the Glazer shares alone, listed shares won’t immediately benefit.”
The figures from yesterday's trading, however they do indicate a rise in "perceived likelihood," are by no means a reliable predictor. The timing of media coverage and price hikes would imply that the former was truly the cause of the latter. The prominent @Muppetiers twitter account, which questions the accuracy of the initial source and the significance of the stock market's subsequent response, makes a good point about this.
Compare the current state of affairs to the Glazer family's now-famous November announcement regarding "strategic alternatives." Hours prior to Sky News' Mark Kleinmen breaking the news that the club was up for sale, share prices rose to astounding heights. The market was obviously reacting to insider knowledge and anticipated something.
In this case, it would seem that the market is reacting to publicly available information. There is little possibility that Sir Jim Ratcliffe will pay much attention, despite the fact that media confidence may be rising inside the Qatari media scene. It appears relatively doubtful that either side will enter into any kind of "period of exclusivity" with either the Raine Group or the Glazers at this time, as reported by The Peoples Person. At this point, both bids are as they were.
Even while everyone involved is desperate for the slow-moving sales process involving the Glazers to end, it does not appear that it is getting any closer based on recent reports, at least not in a way that we can tell with absolute certainty.